Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-06 92667.795748 97712.721600 102753.562236 108164.829138 113805.822311 119509.439587 125708.760093
2025-07-13 85271.293719 93054.972949 101045.273673 109850.218744 119269.823363 129034.139686 139910.125518
2025-07-20 79949.443325 89651.831955 99825.764057 111267.835517 123755.413367 136948.125007 151917.059219
2025-07-27 75497.263890 86623.600608 98500.799203 112087.043344 127161.013936 143335.685622 161965.861910
2025-08-03 71419.467063 83626.723698 96864.581162 112233.966734 129532.328580 148344.661119 170294.029792
2025-08-10 68112.455032 81230.069191 95657.919981 112632.715171 131982.389287 153276.253540 178403.513951
2025-08-17 65045.078620 78903.305521 94346.639168 112739.313153 133950.354130 157545.372978 185674.459010
2025-08-24 63024.629577 77647.287630 94137.484410 113994.754558 137135.336843 163125.964158 194394.693874
2025-08-31 60421.609139 75574.714408 92861.897210 113902.189245 138669.281904 166744.784077 200816.889327
2025-09-07 58942.754034 74746.813607 92966.886300 115357.366436 141953.281193 172352.204242 209531.381941
2025-09-14 57325.264723 73670.883307 92707.280074 116318.691462 144608.757607 177200.028632 217355.558733
2025-09-21 55390.143189 72127.279831 91815.287391 116457.898915 146234.358917 180802.297667 223699.056378
2025-09-28 53475.472526 70559.926131 90858.345042 116496.170206 147736.407780 184279.955506 229949.211123
2025-10-05 52554.839702 70184.182578 91320.995766 118237.404160 151284.745373 190206.524190 239155.913959
2025-10-12 51576.476956 69691.719928 91604.131673 119731.126390 154518.566143 195759.943859 247942.347494
2025-10-19 50357.010206 68845.857007 91407.909246 120598.080287 156962.469272 200353.247256 255583.456208
2025-10-26 48870.696379 67606.794812 90673.655037 120753.429315 158497.327761 203824.895571 261862.333099
2025-11-02 47592.046562 66590.871230 90180.935123 121176.503185 160338.323536 207657.669774 268586.269897
2025-11-09 46240.665198 65435.770786 89471.483085 121289.606494 161764.453067 210965.536372 274666.335952
2025-11-16 45501.677602 65057.523702 89733.696680 122621.932523 164715.551770 216162.825229 283101.998330
2025-11-23 44177.358541 63862.481701 88905.552572 122523.701782 165831.609606 219066.721756 288693.357655
2025-11-30 43615.782244 63666.442642 89359.011251 124067.815811 169035.746800 224588.587804 297577.042344
2025-12-07 42862.804280 63187.085834 89420.915104 125087.777651 171562.175019 229265.128538 305423.930559